The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said that global oil markets had managed to contain the biggest disruption to oil supplies in decades, without witnessing the sharp rises in prices that were expected, but warned that the continued unrest in the Strait of Hormuz may expose the global economy to increased risks as protectionist factors that mitigated the effects of the crisis decline.
And the two experts at the IMF, Jean-Marc Natal and Azim Sadakov, in a report published on Wednesday, that oil prices have stabilized during the past months between 90 and 100 dollars per barrel, despite the exit of about 20 million barrels per day of crude oil and refined products from the markets, which is equivalent to about a fifth of global consumption.
And the report pointed out that the crisis also led to a decline in oil derivatives production in the Gulf region, which was reflected in the diesel and jet fuel markets, while the total quantities lost from the markets until the end of May amounted to about 1.1 billion barrels, which is equivalent to the world's consumption for about ten days, in the largest shock to oil supplies in modern history, surpassing in terms of severity during the same period the crises of 1973 and the Iran-Iraq war.
And the report showed that alternative pipelines, such as the Saudi East-West pipeline and the Abu Dhabi oil export line to the port of Fujairah, were only able to compensate for a limited part of the lost supplies, noting that the stability of the market was achieved thanks to three main factors.
And he explained that the decline in global demand, especially in Asia, contributed significantly to reducing the supply gap, as a result of high prices and the tendency of many countries to rationalize consumption and expand the use of alternative energy sources, in addition to the application of government measures to reduce the impact of high fuel prices.
Rising oil production in countries outside the Gulf, led by the United States, Russia, Venezuela and Guyana, by about two million barrels per day compared to 2025, also contributed to easing pressure on markets.
And the report added that the withdrawal of strategic oil stockpiles was one of the most important factors of market stability, as importing countries, led by China, used their reserves at a rate of nearly four million barrels per day between March and May.
And the IMF warned that continued reliance on these stocks without reconfiguring them will make markets more vulnerable to any future turmoil, noting that restoring production and export levels prior to the crisis may take between two and three months after the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, with the possibility that some producing countries will suffer permanent losses in their production capacities due to lack of funding.
And in conclusion, the Fund called for rebuilding strategic oil stocks, diversifying energy sources and supply routes to reduce dependence on sensitive sea lanes, directing government support to the most affected groups, and adopting pricing policies that encourage energy efficiency.
The report stressed that the success of the markets in absorbing the current shock does not mean the disappearance of risks, but rather reflects the exhaustion of most of the available protection tools, which may make any new escalation in the region more influential on energy markets and the global economy.
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