Tunisia will need an estimated $29 billion in financing between 2026 and 2035 to protect its economy and population from mounting climate threats, according to the country’s latest national climate strategy, which warns that rising temperatures, water shortages and coastal erosion could severely damage growth and living standards if left unaddressed.
The figure represents around 53 percent of the total financing requirements under Tunisia’s Third Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC 3.0), a climate action framework recently presented during a national debate organised by the National Forum of Adaptation to Climate Change (FNACC).
The largest share of the funding requirement is allocated to the water sector, estimated at $10.7 billion, reflecting growing concerns over chronic drought and declining rainfall. Agriculture and food security account for a further $8 billion, underlining fears over the vulnerability of one of Tunisia’s most important economic sectors.
Additional financing needs linked to capacity building, technology transfer and support for adaptation programmes are estimated at $1.85 billion.
The strategy paints a stark picture of the economic risks facing Tunisia as climate pressures intensify across North Africa. According to the document, Tunisia is already experiencing rising temperatures, falling precipitation levels and accelerating sea-level rise.
Citing World Bank projections, the report warned that Tunisia’s economy could shrink by 3.4 percent of gross domestic product by 2030 if climate risks are not urgently addressed, equivalent to losses of nearly 5.6 billion dinars ($1.8 billion) annually in net present value terms.
By 2050, annual losses linked to water scarcity, flooding and coastal erosion could rise to 6.4 percent of GDP, or around 10.4 billion dinars ($3.4 billion).
The agricultural sector is expected to suffer particularly severe damage, with value added projected to fall by 15 percent by 2030 and by as much as 29 percent by mid-century.
A drop in agricultural output would weaken exports and force Tunisia to increase imports to cover domestic shortages, worsening the country’s already fragile external balances. The report said the current account deficit could deteriorate by more than 6 percent by 2030.
Climate disruption is also expected to deepen social pressures. Tunisia’s poverty rate could rise to 21.3 percent by 2030, an increase of 1.5 percentage points compared with baseline projections, according to the strategy.
In response, Tunisia’s NDC 3.0 outlines seven priority areas aimed at strengthening resilience and aligning national policy with the Global Goal on Adaptation under the Paris climate agreement.
The strategy places heavy emphasis on water management, including desalination projects and wastewater reuse to secure equitable access to water resources.
It also seeks to modernise agriculture through the use of climate-resilient seeds, digital technologies and direct support for small farmers, while strengthening food security and fisheries.
The plan includes measures to protect forests, wetlands and oasis ecosystems, which officials describe as critical natural buffers against climate shocks.
Authorities also aim to reinforce the health sector’s capacity to respond to heatwaves and climate-sensitive diseases, while integrating climate risks into infrastructure and urban planning policies, particularly in vulnerable coastal areas.
Tunisia additionally plans to preserve traditional practices such as “Charfia” fishing and “Ramli” agriculture, which officials say have important adaptive value and could support sustainable rural livelihoods.
The strategy also prioritises the creation of green jobs, regional development initiatives, improved climate-risk monitoring systems and the deployment of innovative insurance and compensation mechanisms.
Nationally Determined Contributions are climate action plans submitted by countries under the Paris Agreement, outlining efforts to cut greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate change. Countries are required to update the plans every five years with progressively higher ambitions.
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