An analysis report warned that the move announced by US President Donald Trump on imposing a blockade on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz could lead to wide economic repercussions and a significant rise in the costs of the global economy, in light of the escalation of tensions between the United States and Iran.
And the world has been waiting for weeks for the fate of the reopening of the strait, through which about a fifth of global oil and gas supplies pass, amid unrest resulting from the war between Iran, Israel and the United States.
And during the war, Iran effectively restricted the passage of ships through the strait, allowing some to cross under undisclosed terms and fees, leaving maritime navigation under partial control from Tehran.
The reopening of the strait to international shipping was one of the main conditions of the recently reached ceasefire agreement, but the failure of the negotiation rounds between Washington and Tehran prompted the United States to escalate its position.
And in a post on the Truth Social platform, Trump announced that the U.S. Navy would begin an "immediate blockade" of all ships heading to or leaving Iranian ports, in a move described as a major escalation in regional tensions.
And according to the report, the United States Central Command (CENTCOM) later confirmed the start of implementing measures targeting all ships associated with Iranian ports, including the tanker in the Persian Gulf and ports in the Gulf of Oman.
And the analysis showed that Iran is a major oil producer with a production of about 3.59 million barrels per day, representing about 3.5% of global demand, which makes any disruption to its exports an influential factor in global energy markets.
And Iran relies heavily on oil and gas exports, with oil revenues accounting for more than half of its export income, while China is the largest importer of its oil with up to 90% of total exports.
The report also noted that the blockade would target Iran’s major ports, including oil export facilities on Khark Island, through which the vast majority of Iran’s oil exports pass.
And the analysis warned that any prolonged disruption to shipping across the strait could lead to a rise in global oil prices, with the potential for gradual supply shortages, as well as spillover effects to food and fertilizer markets.
Urea, one of the most important agricultural fertilizers produced by Iran, could be severely affected, which could affect agricultural production in countries that depend on its imports such as Brazil, India and Australia, he said.
The report finds that several countries in the Gulf and Asia will be indirectly affected as a result of supply chain disruptions, especially in raw materials, agricultural products and petrochemicals.
The analysis concluded by emphasizing that the rising uncertainty reinforces the trend of countries towards diversifying energy sources and reducing dependence on oil, along with accelerating investment in renewable energy as a long-term strategic option.
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