Polluting the environment in pursuit of a higher standard of living is changing the Earth's climate. This is known as climate change. Climate change is real, and its effects are being felt around the world. Mountains are melting, oceans are rising, and extreme weather events are becoming more frequent. Production and economic cycles have been disrupted by this change.
The future prospects for its effects are more dire than we can imagine. Productive land has been degraded, agricultural yields have dropped dramatically, and the poor and vulnerable are the hardest hit.
According to a new report by the World Bank, climate change could dramatically slow progress in reducing poverty, and income losses from climate change could push an additional 41 million people into extreme poverty by 2050. This is a real catastrophe that could reverse the achievements of years of anti-poverty efforts.
The report, titled "The Future of Poverty: Projecting the Impact of Climate Change on Global Poverty to 2050" estimates that the number of poor people could rise to 148.8 million, including 48.8 million in South Asia, by 2030. These will be both new and old poor.
According to the report, the number of people living in extreme poverty in the world could double due to climate change, revealing the depth of the climate crisis.
Structural fragility
Poor regions will be hardest hit because of their structural disadvantages. According to the report, the expected rise in poverty levels as a result of climate change will be most profound in sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Latin America and the Caribbean.
There, the effects of extreme weather events interact with existing structural fragility and weak social protection systems. Therefore, there is a need to expand the scope and effectiveness of such protection in areas with limited resilience to climate change.
This can be achieved through expanded social safety nets, such as cash transfers for the poor and targeted support for disadvantaged groups. It may even be necessary to create new social protection mechanisms that directly take into account the effects of climate change.
Global Responsibility and International Cooperation
Given the global nature of the issue, the report calls for international cooperation, which is extremely important. High-income countries, which have accounted for the bulk of emissions since the industrial revolution, have a responsibility to support low- and middle-income countries in their efforts to adapt to and mitigate climate change.
This means taking responsibility at the global level. This includes providing financial resources, technology transfer, and capacity building to help these countries strengthen their resilience to climate shocks and transition to low-emission development pathways. But these pathways must not undermine the prosperity aspirations of developing countries. Productive social protection must be at the center of any international support.
Poverty and inequality: Two sides of the same coin
The report emphasizes that reducing the income gap must be a key part of any anti-poverty strategy. Even small increases in inequality can lead to large increases in poverty levels.
Unfortunately, this relationship is not well understood or ignored by policy makers at the global and national levels, even though poverty anywhere is a threat to prosperity everywhere. This confirms that the development model currently adopted by developed countries has been wrong, environmentally costly, and unsuitable for countries like Nepal.
The report recommends policies that promote inclusive economic growth, reduce barriers to education and employment, address other structural constraints, and strengthen social protection systems. These policies will be necessary to ensure that the benefits of economic development are distributed more equitably and inclusively.
Much evidence shows that these policies, when rigorously applied, have been effective in reducing both poverty and inequality, especially in some social democratic countries in Western Europe and elsewhere. Over the years, these countries have strengthened social safety nets and provided targeted support to the poorest and most vulnerable, even if they have not been successful in adequately protecting the environment.
Social and Economic Security
Socioeconomic security encompasses a range of elements, including expanding access to health care, education, and financial services, as well as strengthening the resilience of livelihoods through investments in agriculture, infrastructure, pro-poor capacity building, and climate adaptation measures. It also includes labor market interventions, such as cash-for-work programs for the unemployed and various cash transfers. Price, poverty and inequality are interconnected.
The new report emphasizes that rising food prices as a result of climate change could lead to a significant increase in global poverty and inequality, especially in developing countries, where food expenditures make up the largest proportion of household expenditures. This in turn reduces savings and capital formation, thereby producing intergenerational poverty.
The price of inaction
Failure to take action will be very costly. It is estimated that if appropriate adaptation and mitigation measures are not taken, global economic output could be 23% lower by 2100 compared to a world without climate change. This will increase global unemployment, poverty and inequality.
The report emphasizes that in most scenarios, projected losses in global income will exceed 20%, highlighting the serious economic consequences of inaction. The report also points out that the effects of temperature change on the economy are more severe for poor countries, even though rich and poor countries are similarly affected by temperature, because most poor countries are located in the already warm regions of Asia, Africa, and Latin America.
By: Dr. Lok Nath Bhushal
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