Sana Khan is a scholar specializing in global security, foreign policy and power politics
Representatives from nearly 200 countries on Turkey’s Mediterranean coast are gathering for two weeks of climate negotiations amid a complex international environment in which the fallout from wars, energy security and artificial intelligence are competing with efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
And the U.S. war with Iran has disrupted oil supplies and encouraged some governments to increase their reliance on coal. And at the same time, the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence technologies is driving up demand for electricity, while the United States is again moving away from international climate cooperation.
And these competing pressures are expected to make it even more difficult for Turkey, the host of COP31, to extract meaningful climate commitments. And with the world already close to exceeding the 1.5 °C warming threshold, set under the 2015 Paris Agreement, the summit faces increasing pressure to turn climate pledges into practical action.
Turkey pushes towards global goal of electricity transition
The Turkish presidency of COP31 has put electricity transition at the center of its climate agenda, and is seeking state support for a goal to shift more than a third of the global economy to electricity dependency by 2035, compared to about a fifth at present.
Known as the "35 by 35 Pledge" (35 by 35), the proposed initiative aims to accelerate the transition from vehicles, heating systems, industrial equipment and cooking technologies powered by fossil fuels, to electricity-based alternatives.
And in principle, switching to electricity could significantly reduce emissions, by replacing equipment that burns coal, oil and gas directly.
But the initiative has already faced criticism from climate advocates, because it does not require that additional electricity come from low-carbon sources.
The point is that electrifying transport, buildings and industry will not necessarily reduce global emissions, if the electricity used to power them remains mainly dependent on fossil fuels.
And that disagreement could become one of the summit’s early policy challenges, as governments must decide whether to treat the switch to electricity as an independent climate achievement, or link it to tougher commitments on renewable energy and other low-emission energy sources.
Phasing out fossil fuels... a major point of contention
A coalition of nations, including a number of vulnerable island nations in the South Pacific, is seeking a clearer global roadmap to move away from fossil fuels.
These countries face particularly severe risks from rising sea levels, and see current climate commitments as insufficient to protect their populations.
In contrast, oil and gas producing countries continue to resist trends that require a rapid reduction in fossil fuel consumption. And Saudi Arabia and other producers say oil and gas could remain part of the global energy mix if technologies are employed to reduce or sequester their emissions.
This disagreement reflects an old divide in international climate negotiations; Developing countries often stress their need for affordable energy and economic development, while countries most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change demand faster emissions reductions to limit the damage they already face.
The challenge for Turkey is to find common ground among these conflicting priorities, without a renewed agreement based mostly on voluntary commitments.
The need for action is heightened by the UN Environment Program's October report, which warned that the world is already on track to exceed the 1.5 °C warming level compared to pre-industrial levels.
Extreme weather events have also highlighted the consequences of these changes; Western Europe experienced a series of extreme heatwaves during 2026, while an avalanche in Nepal led to catastrophic flooding that killed more than 1,450 people, with thousands still missing.
And for the most vulnerable countries, these disasters confirm that climate change is no longer a long-term environmental issue, but a direct threat to lives, infrastructure and economic stability.
Iran war exposes conflict between energy security and climate goals
The Iran-related conflict has further complicated global climate diplomacy by exposing the fragility of international energy supplies.
Disruptions to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have driven up fuel prices and forced governments to seek alternative sources of supply. The crisis has also prompted some countries to reconsider their dependence on imported energy, boosting domestic production.
And the Trump administration has encouraged increased oil, gas and coal production in response to the unrest, while several Asian countries, including South Korea, India and Thailand, have increased their reliance on coal or taken steps to expand electricity production from its plants.
And it threatens to undermine efforts to cut emissions, especially if governments treat the energy crisis as a justification for long-term investment in fossil fuel infrastructure.
Harvard University professor John Holdren argues that the conflict has strengthened the position of those demanding continued high consumption of fossil fuels. But the crisis has also reinforced the argument that renewable energy can improve national energy security, by reducing reliance on risky international supply routes.
Brazilian diplomat Andre Correa de Lago, who chaired the COP last year, said the war has strengthened the case for accelerating the energy transition, at a time when the United States is increasingly isolated from this trend.
These divergent positions reveal a fundamental dilemma facing climate policymakers; Energy security and emission reductions are not necessarily opposing goals, but governments may prioritize immediate supply concerns at the expense of their long-term climate commitments.
China's Clean Technology and Artificial Intelligence Challenge
China’s growing exports of clean energy technologies offer another important dimension to the negotiations, as the availability of renewable energy technologies at relatively low prices helps countries accelerate their deployment, and provides an alternative to returning to fossil fuel investment.
But the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence is creating a new source of pressure on electricity systems.
Data centers and other AI-related infrastructure need large amounts of power, and rising demand could increase emissions if additional electricity is generated using coal and natural gas.
And at the same time, governments and companies do not want to slow the development of artificial intelligence, given its economic, technological and strategic importance.
This creates a difficult equation for climate policymakers; On the one hand, artificial intelligence can support energy management efficiency and improve the performance of electricity grids, but on the other hand, it may lead to an increase in global energy consumption due to the infrastructure requirements needed to operate it.
And Turkey intends to address this issue through a separate pledge that sets out principles for the sustainable development and deployment of AI technologies, with the aim of engaging governments, companies and other institutions in discussing the environmental impacts of this technology.
The challenge, however, is to ensure that sustainability commitments are reflected in actual investment and infrastructure decisions, rather than remaining merely voluntary declarations.
Businesses demand clearer climate policies
The private sector is also seeking greater certainty from COP31, as companies considering investing in electrification, renewable energy and climate change adaptation need predictable policies and clearer signals from governments.
John Denton, Secretary General of the International Chamber of Commerce, called on the summit to go beyond voluntary initiatives and set clearer terms for investment.
This stance reflects a broader concern in the business community to make climate commitments without providing the necessary regulatory frameworks, financing arrangements, and implementation plans to achieve them.
This is particularly important for developing countries, where climate change adaptation projects face funding constraints, despite their increased vulnerability to climate-related disasters.
Transforming adaptation priorities into commercially viable projects would help attract investment, but governments and international financial institutions would need to address the risks that discourage private capital from entering these projects.
What's next?
COP31 will be a test of governments’ ability to sustain climate cooperation, under competing pressures from geopolitical conflicts, energy insecurity, and technological expansion.
Turkey’s goal of switching to electricity provides a potential framework for accelerating the transition in the energy sector, but disagreements over electricity sources and the future of fossil fuels may limit its effectiveness.
The war with Iran has also strengthened arguments for both increasing fossil fuel production domestically and achieving renewable energy independence, while artificial intelligence adds a new layer of uncertainty about future electricity demand.
And for countries most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, the stakes are especially high: exceeding the 1.5 °C threshold will increase the pressure on communities already suffering from extreme heat waves, floods and other climate disasters.
The success of the summit, therefore, will depend not so much on the number of pledges to be made, but on the ability of governments to agree on credible implementation mechanisms, provide funding, and take effective measures to reduce emissions.
And without clearer commitments, COP31 risks becoming a new example of the widening gap between international climate ambitions and political and economic decisions reshaping the global energy system.
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