The World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2026 analyzes the international risk landscape over the next decade, emphasizing the shift of the global system towards an era of intense competition, where the spirit of collective action is declining in favor of narrow national interests.
The report highlights how trade and technology have become strategic tools of geopolitical influence, destabilizing multilateral institutions and fragmenting the global system into opposing poles that use sanctions and supply chains as strategic weapons.
1 - Geoeconomic confrontation: the most significant short-term risk
The geo-economic conflict is the most severe global threat expected over the next two years, as this confrontation topped the rankings of the Global Risks Perception Survey for 2025-2026, ahead of armed conflicts and extreme weather events, and is expected to cause a tangible global crisis in 2026.
Geoeconomic dimensions of the confrontation:
Definition of confrontation and its tools:
The geo-economic confrontation is embodied in the use of economic levers by global and regional powers to reshape interactions between states, both to build self-sufficiency and to constrain competitors. Its tools include: trade, finance, technology, currency measures, sanctions, investment controls and supply chain control.
Target Strategic Sectors:
They include artificial intelligence, electronic chips, biotechnology, quantum technologies, drones, rare metals, as well as financial infrastructure and capital flow systems.
Implications for the Global System:
declining international pluralism and weak multilateral institutions.
disruptions to global value chains and high risk of disruption.
Inflationary pressures from tariffs and competition for resources.
Threatening critical infrastructure, including power and communications networks.
Time Range:
Confrontation is considered a top priority in the short term (two years), while its sharpness in the rating is expected to decrease in the long term (10 years). But debt accumulation can lead to new volatility that affects businesses and communities.
Suggested solutions:
strengthening regional alliances and "coalitions of the willing", and developing public-private consultation to support transparency in economic decision-making.
2 - Erosion of international multilateralism
The international system is witnessing a clear decline in multilateralism, as the multilateral system faces increasing pressure from weak confidence, low transparency, and declining respect for the rule of law, along with escalating protectionist policies.
Versatility wear dimensions:
Multipolarity without Multilateralism:
The current world order is described as "multipolar or fragmented", with major and medium powers competing to impose regional norms and standards, while only 6% expect the rule-based uni-polar international order to recover.
Weak International Institutions:
Institutions such as the World Trade Organization (WTO) are stalled and ineffective, with the number of cases before the dispute settlement system dropping by about a third compared to before 2019.
Geoeconomic confrontation as an alternative to cooperation:
Economic weapons have become a key tool for states to strengthen their strategic advantages, fragmenting supply chains and undermining the interconnected global economy.
Global governance vacuum:
Lack of capacity to manage common threats such as climate change, pandemics and organized crime is driving countries towards strategic independence and strengthening national defense capabilities.
The Rise of Political Realism:
Narrow national interests replace collective action, and “coalitions of the willing” and mini-agreements are increasingly relied upon as alternative solutions when global progress is not possible.
Repercussions on the rule of law: The decline in pluralism has led to the so-called "stagnation of the global rule of law," with 68% of countries experiencing a decline in commitment to the rule of law, deepening social and political instability internally and externally.
3 - Emerging technological risks
Emerging risks include artificial intelligence and quantum technologies, with the risk of harmful AI outputs representing the biggest jump in the global ranking, moving up from 30th to 5th in the long term.
Detailing risks:
Artificial Intelligence:
misinformation, "Deepfakes" and increased societal polarization.
job losses and a rising income gap (K-shaped economics).
military risks and unintended escalation of conflicts.
Loss of control over autonomous intelligent systems.
Quantum Technologies:
Threat to encryption and data protection systems.
the collapse of digital trust and the widening gap between developed and developing countries.
escalating global strategic competition and restricting access to sensitive technology.
The Intersection of Techniques and Geopolitical Confrontation:
Advances in artificial intelligence and quantum technologies are accelerating the emergence of risks, creating “winner-take-all” scenarios, with significant environmental impacts from energy and water consumption.
4- Disruption of vital infrastructure
The report points to mounting risks to critical systems, including the Internet, telecommunications, energy, and the financial system.
Dimensions of this disorder:
Aging Systems and Funding Gaps:
Most of the infrastructure, especially in OECD countries, is old and suffers from frequent breakdowns.
Digitization and Artificial Intelligence: Increasing energy demand for data centers, and rising interconnectivity between systems increase the risk of “cascading effects.”
Climate change and extremes: Drought and floods disrupt global trade and raise commodity costs.
Infrastructure as a hybrid war front: Using cyber and physical attacks on energy and water networks as tools in geopolitical conflicts.
Regional situation (Iraq as a model)
"Infrastructure is plagued by sanctions, wars, and a lack of expertise, hampering economic and social stability."
5- Debt crises and financial pressures
Global debt totals $251 trillion, equivalent to 235% of global GDP in 2024, with debt levels continuing to rise across all economies.
Dimensions of debt crises:
High refinancing and debt service costs, especially in OECD and global corporate markets.
Pressures on strategic spending and increasing fiscal deficits due to military spending and geopolitical confrontation.
the volatility of financial markets and the risk of the collapse of non-bank banks.
Pressure on monetary policy and the possibility of widespread inflation.
Erosion of the social contract and increasing inequality, with K-shaped economies.
the need for innovative solutions such as debt-for-development swaps, and financial and fiscal reforms to enhance the ability of States to meet challenges.
conclusion
The Global Risks Report 2026 notes that the world is facing a period of complex turmoil: geo-economic confrontations, emerging technologies, weak international multilateralism, the collapse of critical infrastructure, and debt crises. Addressing these risks requires adopting flexible strategies, strengthening international cooperation, developing digital governance, and developing innovative financial instruments to ensure the stability of the global economy and societies.
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