Energy experts are warning of an impending crisis in global copper supplies, threatening serious disruptions to clean energy transition projects and raising strategic questions about the future security of essential resources in the coming decades.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global copper demand is set to rise from around 27 million tons in 2024 to more than 34 million tons by 2040. However, current and planned mining projects are not enough to fill the gap, leading to an estimated shortfall of 20% even in the best-case scenario.
Structural challenges in supply chains
The global copper industry faces 3 major challenges:
Deteriorating ore quality: The concentration of copper in mined rocks has declined by 40% over the past three decades.
Lack of investment: Significant delays in launching new mining projects, especially in copper-rich regions such as Africa and Latin America.
Long development cycles: Development of new mines takes 7 to 10 years on average, slowing the response to accelerating demand.
Energy Growth and Growing Demand
The sharp increase in copper consumption is directly related to the global shift towards renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind power, as well as the shift to electric vehicles, as copper is heavily used in electrical systems and associated infrastructure.
IEA estimates show that demand from renewable energy sectors is growing at a rate of more than 11% per year, compared to just 1.4% for conventional sectors.
High prices and limited production horizon
The copper price reached $5.80 per pound in July 2025, marking a 42% annual increase. Chile is the world's largest supplier, but its projected annual production (5.4 to 5.6 million tons) is not enough to compensate for the absence of new projects.
Potential geopolitical and economic impacts
Experts suggest that this shortage is likely to lead to:
Rising industrial and technological costs globally.
Geopolitical competition for copper mining areas is intensifying.
Disrupting global climate goals, especially those related to emissions reductions through 2050.
Preliminary monitoring and policy recommendations:
The need to launch strategic investments in the exploration and development of new mines.
Diversify copper sources and reduce reliance on traditional producers.
Supporting research on recycling and developing technological alternatives to reduce reliance on copper ore.
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