Iraqi-US relations underwent major shifts during Donald Trump's first term as president (2017-2021), characterized by military cooperation in the fight against terrorism, as well as political tensions stemming from US pressure on Iraq to reduce Iranian influence.
US sanctions on Iran have directly affected the Iraqi economy, and tensions were exacerbated by the assassination of Qassem Soleimani, prompting the Iraqi parliament to demand the departure of US troops.
As Trump returns to the White House, questions are being raised about the future of this relationship, especially in light of Iraq's recent decision to end exemptions for electricity imports from Iran on March 9, which could deepen the economic and political challenges between the two countries.
Iraqi-U.S. relations during Trump's first term: Major shifts
First: Political aspect
During Trump's first term, political relations between Iraq and the United States witnessed notable tensions, which were affected by several key factors, including:
U.S. withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal: In May 2018, Trump announced his country's withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal and reimposed strict economic sanctions on Tehran. This impact has directly affected Iraq, which relies heavily on Iran for energy and electricity.
The Iraqi government faced US pressure to comply with these sanctions, prompting the US to grant Iraq temporary waivers to import gas and electricity from Iran, but these waivers were only renewed every 90 days, putting Iraq in an awkward position. As the Trump administration tightened its "maximum pressure" policy on Iran, Baghdad became an arena for indirect conflict between Washington and Tehran.
Increasing Iranian influence and the U.S. response: During the Trump era, the U.S. has tried to minimize Iranian influence in Iraq by imposing sanctions on pro-Tehran Iraqi figures, such as some leaders of Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) factions.
The Iraqi parliament's decision to end the presence of US troops: Following the assassination of General Qassem Soleimani and PMF deputy head Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, on January 5, 2020, the Iraqi parliament voted on a resolution obliging the government to remove all foreign forces from Iraq.
II: Economic aspect
The economic file was a decisive factor in determining the nature of the relationship between Baghdad and Washington during Trump's first term. Trump adopted a policy aimed at realizing the economic interests of the United States with maximum benefits and minimum costs, and sought to obtain "profits" from U.S. international partnerships.
He believes that the U.S. presence in any country should be profitable and not just a security or diplomatic commitment. Thus, Trump could seek to impose the cost of liberating Iraq according to his statements that US assistance should not be free and that Iraqis should pay the price of liberation, which he set at no less than one and a half trillion dollars.
III: Military and Security
The U.S. military presence in Iraq will remain controversial, and things are likely to change dramatically under the second Trump administration. Some possibilities can be highlighted as follows:
Redeployment of U.S. forces in Iraq: Despite the Biden administration's efforts to reduce the number of U.S. troops and turn their mission into an advisory one, Trump may reevaluate this policy, and we may see an increase in U.S. military factors if the ISIS threat worsens or attacks against U.S. interests in Iraq increase.
The fate of U.S. military bases in Iraq: The U.S. is expected to seek to strengthen its presence at bases such as Ain al-Assad in Anbar and Harir in the Kurdistan Region. If the Iraqi government decides to push for Washington's exit, we may see U.S. economic pressure or even threats to reduce security assistance.
In short, Trump's potential return to the White House could lead to an escalation of tensions in Iraqi-US relations, with new political, economic and security challenges that could affect the stability of Iraq and the region in general.
Prepare: Reham Mohamed
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