Fawzi Hassan Al-Zubaidi, in his study published in Strategic Visions entitled "National Security Risk Assessment Methodology: An Analytical Study of the National Security Risk Assessment (NSRA) Methodology" (2015) critically analyzes the NSRA methodology. He focuses on the theoretical and practical gaps in this methodology and proposes an alternative framework to improve the risk assessment process in light of the complex geopolitical turmoil, especially in the Middle East.
General context: The political and security changes that followed the war on terrorism and the "Arab Spring," in addition to technological advances and increasing regional interventions, pose complex challenges for regional states, which calls for the development of comprehensive national security assessment methodologies.
The most important gaps in the NSRA model:
1. Subjectivity and personal judgment: The model's reliance on expert assessments makes the results susceptible to bias resulting from differences in cultural and political backgrounds.
2. Neglecting the interconnectedness of risks: The model fails to address the interconnectedness of diverse risks and their cascading effect in times of crisis.
3. Ignoring immediate risks: The model focuses on assessing long-term threats (5-20 years), ignoring immediate and sudden risks.
4. Limited criteria: Relies on only two criteria (likelihood and impact) without taking into account the country's protective capabilities and recoverability.
5. Omits international and regional context: Does not incorporate regional and international influences that may amplify or downplay threats.
Criticizing alternative methodologies: Al-Zubaidi criticizes the U.S. Nochterlein's methodology, which focuses on categorizing risks according to the national interests affected, but ignores important factors such as the likelihood of the threat occurring and the impact of international and local contexts.
Proposed alternative methodology: Al-Zubaidi proposes an integrated risk assessment framework that includes:
1. Analyze the threat environment: Includes source, target, and context.
2. An advanced risk assessment scale: Based on weighted indicators including timing, likelihood, impact, and protective capabilities.
3. Understanding the interactions between risks: By examining the impact of overlapping risks on national interests.
The goal of the new framework: The proposed framework aims to provide a more comprehensive and accurate methodology that enables decision makers to effectively predict and deal with risks in the context of a volatile international environment.
Conclusion: The study highlights the urgent need to develop national security risk assessment methodologies to reflect the complexities of the geopolitical landscape, proposing a dynamic and comprehensive model that can be applied in the countries of the region to enhance their national security.
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